A completely functioning example of uncertainty quantification (UQ) and parameter estimate (PE) on a decision-support-scale is shown. The assessments are carried out using an existing groundwater flow model for the Edwards aquifer in Texas, USA, using a script-based methodology that aims to be transparent and repeatable. To history-match simulated outputs to corresponding state observations of spring flow and groundwater level, high-dimensional PE is applied. Then there's a back cast of a past drought. The combined UQ and PE studies are shown to generate an ensemble of model solutions that frame the observed hydrologic responses using accessible state measurements obtained under drought circumstances. All of the information and scripts used in the studies have been released into the public domain to serve as a model for other practitioners who want to perform similar work.
